That 1.2 percent number everyone keeps repeating: What it really means

UK house prices rose by 1.

No. 15138 from our magazine|2 min read| Published in Magazine on 24 June 2026 by our Marketing Team

2% in the year to February 2026. That figure, published by the ONS and HM Land Registry in April, has been quoted in headlines, cited in property valuations, and used by buyers and sellers alike to support their view of the current market. It is a real and accurately calculated number. The way most people are using it is not accurate, and understanding the difference matters considerably if you are making a property decision in 2026.

What the figure actually measures

The UK House Price Index is calculated using completed sale transactions registered with HM Land Registry. It measures what buyers actually paid for properties at exchange and completion, not what sellers asked for, not what was agreed informally, and not what portals estimate. It is one of the most accurate measures of achieved prices available to the public precisely because it is grounded in legally recorded transactions.

That accuracy comes with a significant limitation: lag. The February 2026 data, published in late April, reflects transactions that completed weeks or months earlier. Much of the activity it captures took place before the Iran conflict began on 28 February 2026. It describes a market that no longer exists in exactly the form it shows.

Why the figure changed the following month

The March 2026 update, published more recently, illustrates how quickly the picture can shift. The annual growth rate fell to 0% by March, and average prices dipped 0.4% month-on-month. That was not a market collapse. It was a base effect: March 2025 was an exceptionally strong month driven by buyers rushing to complete before the April 2025 stamp duty threshold changes. Comparing March 2026 against that elevated base produced a flat annual figure. A buyer or seller who saw the February figure of 1.2% and did not track the March update of 0% was working from outdated information.
Both figures are accurate. Neither one alone is the complete picture.

Why the national average obscures more than it reveals

The 1.2% figure is a national average across markets performing at meaningfully different speeds. Annual growth was running at 3.2% in the North East and 3.1% in the North West at the same time as London and the South East were both recording minus 0.2%. A seller in a northern city and a seller in an outer London borough are not operating in a 1.2% market. They are operating in distinct local conditions, and treating the national figure as relevant to either of them produces a miscalibrated view of what their property is worth.

What buyers should understand

For buyers, the 1.2% figure confirms that the market has been growing modestly rather than falling or surging. It supports a view of steady, evidence-based pricing decisions rather than a market where significant discounts are available or where overpaying significantly carries limited risk. Prices at the national level are not falling, which matters for buyers considering whether to act now or wait.

What sellers should understand

For sellers, the 1.2% national figure is context, not a valuation. What your property will achieve is determined by what comparable homes in your immediate area have actually sold for in the past three months, adjusted for your property’s specific condition and presentation. The national index is the right starting point for a conversation about the market. It is not a substitute for local comparable evidence.

The most useful thing that can be said about 1.2% is this: it tells you the direction. The detail requires a closer look.

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This article was originally published by BriefYourMarket and is reproduced here with their permission.

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