Rightmove’s 2026 forecast: what a predicted 2% price rise actually means
Rightmove's 2026 forecast: What a predicted 2% price rise means At the end of December 2025, Rightmove published its annual housing market forecast for the year ahead.
The headline figure was a predicted 2% rise in new seller asking prices by the end of 2026, following an unexpected fall of 0.6% in 2025. It was a measured forecast built on a specific set of conditions: improving buyer affordability, good levels of available stock, the prospect of continuing mortgage rate reductions, and average wage growth running ahead of house prices
Understanding what that 2% figure was describing, and how 2026 has actually played out against it, is useful context for any seller making decisions in September.
What the forecast was actually measuring
The Rightmove forecast measures new seller asking prices, which is the price at which properties come to the market. This is a different measure from achieved prices, which is what buyers pay at completion and which the ONS records. Asking prices are the more current indicator because they are captured at the point of listing rather than several months later at completion. They are also aspirational: the gap between what sellers ask and what buyers pay at completion is a persistent feature of the market.
Rightmove’s December 2025 data showed average asking prices had fallen 0.6% across that year in full, ending at £358,138. The 2% forecast for 2026 would place the end-of-year asking price average at approximately £365,000, representing a recovery of the 2025 fall and modest additional growth.
What actually happened in 2026
The 2% forecast was built on conditions that changed materially in late February 2026. The Iran conflict, which began on 28 February, pushed mortgage rates from approximately 4.25% to above 5% within weeks, disrupting affordability assumptions that had been a central pillar of the forecast. Rightmove’s July 2026 House Price Index recorded average asking prices at £372,359, a 1% fall on June and larger than the typical seasonal July decline. Sales agreed in the first half of 2026 were 6% below the equivalent period in 2025, though level with H1 2024.
At the same time, the ONS UK House Price Index for May 2026, measuring completed transaction prices, showed annual growth of 2.7%, above the asking price forecast. The two measures do not contradict each other: asking prices have experienced seasonal softness mid-year while achieved prices, which reflect earlier decisions made in a different rate environment, have held their upward trend.
The regional picture behind the national figure
Rightmove’s December forecast was specific about regional variation: Wales, Scotland, and northern England were expected to outperform, while London and the south of England were anticipated to lag. That regional pattern has been broadly accurate. Zoopla’s July 2026 data shows the North East recording sales above last year’s volumes, while London remains one of the softer markets for both prices and transaction speed.
For sellers, the regional nuance within any national forecast is more commercially relevant than the headline figure. A 2% national average is the product of markets growing at 5% and markets growing at 0% in the same period. What matters for a specific property is what comparable homes in the same postcode have actually sold for in the past three months, not what the national index predicts by year end.
What 2% means in practical terms
On a property priced at £300,000, 2% annual growth represents £6,000. On a property at £400,000, it represents £8,000. This is modest rather than dramatic growth, and it reinforces the consistent message of the 2026 market: correctly priced, well-presented homes are selling. The national forecast provides directional context, but the local sold price data is what determines the outcome.
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This article was originally published by BriefYourMarket and is reproduced here with their permission.
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